Monday, October 31, 2011

FIIs were net sellers in F&O segment..on 31 Oct 11

FIIs were net sellers in F&O segment..on 31 Oct 11

Dhanvarsha crucial Nifty Futures Levels and market prediction 31 Oct 11.

 Nifty Futures Levels

<5265><5304 ><5335><5354><5380><5406><5427><5453>

Flat to slightly positive opening is expected with possibility of  range bound session ahead  due to mix cues from  global and Asian markets may pause here having  dilemma to cross 200 dma(5425)  as  momentum is not there ..and without momentum / force , 200 DMA crossing is quite difficult .

Results today ..icici bank  bpcl , bata india . BOB, Dena bank ...

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Hindalco will retrace soon ...

Hindalco blasted 11 % up on Friday ..
who bought...?
no one
only huge short covering ...
if traders covered their shorts then who sold them ....?
some one was certainly there ..who was ready with a plan to book profit and holding price above 10 % up ...
have a look ...

price was up ...huge volume was there ...22772  contract were traded ..
and open interest decreased by 2636000.....
as per technical view ...up move is not having buying support  and soon it will retrace  to lower levels...

2636 positions closed @ minimum profit of 12 Rs per lot ..
and small traders booked loss of 12 points per lot they were carrying short ...

we are firm on the view that Nifty will pause here with a support of 5185 ...

Yesterday I passed message at YIM that market will pause at this level and some one  responded  that all channels are expecting for 5500 level..
so want to explain few technical reasons ...
Market traded in range on Friday after huge gap up ..
momentum paused already and range trading started is indication of stage 3 ( see at Bottom )
Nifty is trading below 200 DMA and in highly overbought zone one will buy here...only forced buying  I mean short covering will be there...due to margin short fall ...

Falling trend line In Nifty  is intact and  it seems  that  we  will have to wait for its breaching ...

a big gap is lying there to be filled ...

more over now trader will start thinking about RBI rate hike and its effect on auto, realty and other interest rate related sectors and a jump from 5k to 5400 in Nifty will force traders to book profit and possibility of increase in supply is there ....
IT index too trdaing below 200  MA ..and profit booking is already started ..

Here are the four stages that stocks go through. This happens in all time frames whether it is a monthly chart, weekly chart, daily chart, or an intraday chart.
stock market stages graphic
Ok, so I'm not the best artist in the world but I think it will serve our purpose here! What? You thought it would be more complicated that? My philosophy on the stock market is that if it is too complicated then it is just not worth doing. Now, we'll look at the characteristics of the four stock market stages. I promise it will be painless!

Stage One

Stage 1 is the stage right after a prolonged downtrend. This stock has been going down but now it is starting to trade sideways forming a base. The sellers who once had the upper hand are now beginning to lose their power because of the buyers starting to get more aggressive. The stock just drifts sideways without a clear trend. Everyone hates this stock!

Stage Two

Finally stocks break out into Stage 2 and begins the uptrend. Oh, the glory of stage 2!! Sometimes I have dreams of stocks in Stage 2! This is where the majority of the money is made in the stock market. But here is the funny thing: No one believes the rally! That's right, everyone still hates the stock. The fundamentals are bad, the outlook is negative, etc. But professional traders know better. They are accumulating shares and getting ready to dump it off to those getting in late. This sets up stage 3.

Stage Three

Finally, after the glorious advance of stage 2, the stock begins to trade sideways again and starts to "churn". Novice traders are just now getting in! This stage is very similar to stage 1. Buyers and sellers move into equilibrium again and the stock just drifts along. It is now ready to begin the next stage.

Stage Four

This is the dreaded downtrend for those that are long this stock. But, you know what the funny thing is? You guessed it. Nobody believes the downtrend! The fundamentals are probably still very good and everyone still loves this stock. They think the downtrend is just a "correction". Wrong! They hold and hold and hold, hoping it will reverse back up again. They probably bought at the end of Stage 2 or during Stage 3. Sorry, you lose. Checkmate

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Nifty trading range for week ending 04 Nov 11

Earlier Nifty spot get supported at 5178 level that time we marked fib like this at weekly chart ...5178. 5425 are  crucial according to it..and 5425 will resist further up move...Nifty is settled at week Nifty range  is coming as 5200>><<5425 ..assuming that 5425 won't permit bulls to move further up...
If bulls will able to clear  5425 then they will take it to 5619...
Previous week Nifty prediction range shifted up by 150 to 175 points..
just trade accordingly ..
Daily Nifty chart is showing a perfect spinning top in highly overbought zone ...only 1 negative closing will turn the direction of move ...
Daily nifty chart is showing spindle tops and huge gap lying there 5214 to 5330...will market try to fill it soon ?

yesterday OI addition for Nifty was more than 10 lac .
Volume was higher comparatively ..
and interpretation is ...

 If  open interest is high at a market top and the price falls off dramatically, this scenario should be considered bearish. In other terms, this means that all of the long position holders that bought near the top of the market are now in a loss position, and their panic to sell keeps the price action under pressure.

FIIs were net buyers in equities and F&O segment on 28 Oct 11

FIIs were net buyers in equities and F&O segment on 28 Oct 11

Stocks Finish Close to Flat After Big Europe Plan Rally

Stocks held close to the flatline throughout Friday's session and theDow Jones Industrial Average nabbed its fifth consecutive week of gains, suggesting that the eurozone debt plan is lending some welcome stability to the market.

The Dow gained 23 points, or 0.2%, to settle at 12,231. The S&P 500 rose half a point, or 0.04%, to finish at 1285, while the Nasdaq closed down by 2 points, or 0.05%, at 2737.
Overall, the Dow surged 3.6% for the week, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 3.8%. The Dow rose more than 524 points in the past three sessions, an increase of 4.5%, and is now sitting at its highest closing level since July 28. So far in October, the blue-chip index has added 12.1%, which has put it up 5.7% year-to-date.
5 day's chart is showing that bottom trend line is broken so keep track at 12150 ..below it will see a healthy correction 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 (DJI: ^DJI )
Index Value:12,231.11
Trade Time:4:06PM EDT
Change:Up 22.56 (0.18%)
Prev Close:12,208.55
Day's Range:12,164.24 -12,251.92
52wk Range:10,362.30 -12,928.50