Sunday, January 27, 2013

Nifty outlook for expiry week ending on 01 Feb 13

Highest weekly closing after 26 Dec 2010 seen at weekly chart  but last candle  ended making hanging man near top of bollinger band.

Prior Trend:Bullish
Confirmation:Definitely required
No. of Sticks:1

The Bearish Hanging Man Pattern is a single candlestick and a top reversal pattern. It is very similar to the Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern. In case of the Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern, the opening and closing prices are identical whereas the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern has a small real body.
Recognition Criteria:
1. We see it at a market top or during an uptrend.
2. It is characterized by its small real body at the upper end of the trading range and it is located above the trend. The color of the body is unimportant.
3. It has a lower shadow, which is at least twice the height of the real body.
4. There is either no upper shadow or a very short upper shadow.
The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern. It signals a market top or a resistance level. Since it is seen after an advance, a Bearish Hanging Man Pattern signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow indicates that the sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of this selling pressure after a rally is a serious warning signal.
Important Factors:
Ideally; the lower shadow of the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern must be two or three times the height of the real body. However, a long lower shadow may not have to be twice the height of the real body in the real life conditions in order to signal a reversal. The pattern is more perfect if the lower shadow is longer.
The Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern is a more bearish signal than the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern and it is also more reliable than the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern.
If a Bearish Hanging Man Pattern is characterized by a black real body, it shows that the close was not able to get back to the opening price level, which has potentially bearish implications.
We need a confirmation of the reversal on the next day for a more definite proof about the reversal of the uptrend. This confirmation may be in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close on the next trading day.
It is upto outer bollinger that will it give space  to bulls
 or will try to revert them back towards  center bollinger.
Upside resistances are 6136   6284  and  down side supports are 5915   5792 as per weekly chart ..
momentum is gud and trading at bullish note .
please have a look
Daily chart is showing that bears  dragged  nifty spot in  horizontal channel after 4 sessions of efforts  but unable to hold it inside and bulls pulled it up once again in last session and able to hold it out side...
Next week will be extremely volatile as 2 events- expiry and RBI credit policy will have gr8 impact on market moves ...News and rumors both will be in play so trade cautiously .
As per eod last candle  it seems that if same momentum will be there then  it may cross 6137 and may bang on 6286 provided RBI will announce 0.50 points rate cut .
As per futures data huge short covering was seen in Jan contracts ...but 4 times addition in Feb contracts ...some thing was cooking 6075 level Jan ...
what was that ...long creation or short build up above 6100-6115 at Feb chart
Confusion is here  have they build up long  or short  between 6100- 6115
Feb Nifty started range trades after 2.00 PM

as per  daily chart  we can expect nifty range for next week may be 5970-6136...

Greg asked  me like that ....

Greg (1/25/2013 9:58:16 AM): future n spot lvls are all almost the same indicating? (1/25/2013 9:59:40 AM): that nf may blast today
Greg (1/25/2013 9:59:54 AM): k (1/25/2013 10:00:22 AM): so go long with tight sl
Greg (1/25/2013 10:00:34 AM): k
But do not take it granted for all situations ...depend on trading levels ...
If you are looking for such type of real time instant support  then Join Dhanvarsha  now...
learn as well as learn too ...and appreciate like this ...

kunal (1/25/2013 9:15:05 PM): salute to u sir and yr technicals (1/25/2013 9:20:58 PM): are u watching crude call and gains

RoY (1/25/2013 9:21:57 PM): yes sir watching calls and gains. magnificent. hats off 2 u sir

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