Dhanvarsha

Nifty Macro Economics (1 Sept 2013)

OmSaiRam Nifty Trend Analysis

Good Morning September

9 Points to share, on the Nifty index trend (Macro)

1. The rupee was again at the epicenter of the turmoil last week as it hit an astounding level of 68.8 against the dollar on Wednesday.
2. The formation of yet another hammer formation in the weekly chart is a positive as it implies that buyers are willing to buy at lower levels.
3. The index is moving sideways in the range of 17,800 and 18,700 over the last two weeks.
4. But as per E-wave counts, we are getting some ominous signs.Nifty (5,471.8). The Elliott wave pattern on the Nifty too is foreboding to say the least. A zigzag pattern appears complete in the index from the peak of 6,093 recorded in July 2013. If the pull-back since last week is the second wave, it has already achieved its minimum target at 5,493. Inability to make any progress on Monday morning will mean that the third from the 6,093 is unfolding. This wave has the targets of 4,887 and 4,515.
5. If the index manages to move higher next week, resistances will be at 5,605 and 5,720.
6. Short-term trend will turn positive only on a strong close above 5,720.
7. The index has already tested the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous up-move from the December 2011 low.
8. This support at 5,180 will be the first halt if the index starts sliding next week. If this level is breached, the targets mentioned above will come into play.
9. Since the third leg of any move is the swiftest and deepest, if the index starts sliding early next week, it will mean that the Nifty could be back at its 2011 low before the end of September.

Rock N Roll

omsairam